Senate Forecast Projects Democrats to Win For the First Time This Cycle

Election forecaster FiveThirtyEight’s model now projects Democrats to win a majority of Senate seats for the first time this cycle, Mediaite reports.

The FiveThirtyEight model “simulates the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often. This sample of 100 outcomes gives you an idea of the range of scenarios the model considers possible.”

In that model, Democrats now win the Senate majority 56 out of 100 times.

“Republicans have selected weak candidates, hurting their chances of taking the chamber in November,” the outlet noted.

Which races?

The outlet projects Democrats to keep their Senate seat in Nevada, where Sen. Catherine Cortez-Masto is facing former Attorney General Adam Laxalt, an election conspiracist who led Trump’s legal challenges in the state.

Democrats are also expected to pick up a Senate seat in Pennsylvania, where Lt. Gov. John Fetterman leads Dr. Mehmet Oz.

The model also puts the Georgia Senate race between Herschel Walker and Sen. Raphael Warnock at 50-50, though if Democrats pick up the Pennsylvania seat they can afford to lose Georgia and still keep control of the Senate.

“Not just statistical noise":

“It seems clear that there’s Something Happening Here and movement toward Democrats in recent polls isn’t just statistical noise,” wrote FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver.

“The *something* is probably in part (or indeed mostly) Dobbs, but there are quite a few factors that have come to look better for Democrats over the past few weeks, including their legislative agenda,” he added.


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