Mitch McConnell Says There’s a “50-50” Chance Republicans Lose the Senate

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell acknowledged on Wednesday that there is a significant chance his party will lose its Senate majority on Election Day, The Hill reports.

“It's a 50-50 proposition. We have a lot of exposure. This is a huge Republican class. ... There's dogfights all over the country," McConnell said during a campaign event.

McConnell, who faces his own electoral challenge in Democrat Amy McGrath, said he was confident in his own chances of victory.

"I'm confident that I'm going to be successful," he said. "I've made my case to the people of Kentucky, I think it's a convincing case."

He added that voters should fear the Democratic Party, even though it just elected one of its most moderate members out of nearly two dozen candidates that included multiple progressives.

"If you look at the Democratic Party today, you ought to be frightened," he said. "We're fighting for our way of life."

Higher than 50% chance GOP loses Senate:

Despite McConnell’s admission, his outlook is still more optimistic than polls suggest.

Election forecaster FiveThirtyEight gives Democrats a 76% chance of winning a Senate majority.

The most likely outcome is that Democrats end up with 51 to 52 seats in the Senate after the election.

There are 23 Republican-held seats and 12 Democratic-held seats up for grabs this cycle.

Republicans currently hold a 53-seat majority.

GOP has virtually no chance of winning the House:

Republicans also have virtually no chance of regaining control of the House of Representatives.

FiveThirtyEight gives the GOP a 2% chance of winning back control.

Democrats currently control 232 seats to the GOP’s 197.

FiveThirtyEight projects that Democrats will expand their lead to about 241 seats next week.

Democrats have an 80% chance of winning between 227 and 256 seats in the chamber, according to the forecast.


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