Former Vice President Joe Biden is projected to win the most delegates in the Democratic race after a slew of new Super Tuesday polls showed him surging in key states.
Biden now has a 65% chance to win a plurality of the delegates compared to a 34% chance for Bernie Sanders, according to election forecaster FiveThirtyEight. The model previously showed Sanders as the odds-on favorite to win the most delegates.
The other remaining candidates, Mike Bloomberg, Elizabeth Warren, and Tulsi Gabbard, all have less than a 1% chance to win the most delegates.
No one expected to win majority:
Though Biden is now projected to have the most delegates at the end of the primaries, the model projects that no candidate will win half of the pledged delegates, meaning the convention could go to a second ballot for the first time since the 1950s.
There is a 61% chance no one wins a majority and a 31% chance that Biden wins a majority. Sanders now has just an 8% chance to win a majority of delegates.
If the convention goes to a second ballot, pledged delegates will be able to back any candidate they choose, though these delegates tend to be supporters of the candidates.
More than 700 superdelegates will also be able to vote on a second ballot.
Biden surges in polls:
Biden’s surge in the forecast came after new polls showed him primed to win numerous key states on Super Tuesday.
A set of polls from Data for Progress showed Biden leading in Texas, North Carolina, Virginia, Tennessee, and other southern states.
The polls show Sanders leading in California, Minnesota, Maine, Utah, Vermont, and Colorado.