Vice President Joe Biden fell from first place in a new Monmouth University poll, the first national poll to show him trailing Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren.
Biden fell from 32 points in June to 19 points in August, according to the poll. That put Biden behind Sanders and Warren, who are tied for first place at 20 percent apiece. Sanders rose by 6 percent from June while Warren added 5 points since June.
The poll shows California Sen. Kamala Harris at 8 percent, New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker up to 4 percent, South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg down to 4 percent, and Andrew Yang is up to 3 percent. No other candidate is higher than 2%.
“The main takeaway from this poll is that the Democratic race has become volatile,” Monmouth pollster Patrick Murray told The New York Times. “Liberal voters are starting to cast about for a candidate they can identify with. Moderate voters, who have been paying less attention, seem to be expressing doubts about Biden.”
Another poll released last week by YouGov and the Economist found Biden at 22 percent, while Sanders was at 19 and Warren was at 18.
Biden remains the frontrunner:
Although two polls showed Biden falling, most of the polls still show Biden well out ahead of the pack, including a Morning Consult poll released hours after the Monmouth poll Monday.
The Morning Consult poll shows Biden up to 33 percent while Sanders trails with 20 percent and Warren is at 15 percent.
The RealClearPolitics average of polls released since August 9 shows Biden at 27.5 percent, Sanders at 16.7 percent, Warren at 16.2 percent, Harris at 7.3 percent, and Buttigieg at 4.8 percent.
State polls are the ones that matter:
Ultimately there is no national primary so the real importance is on early state polls.
A Monmouth University poll released earlier this month found Biden leading in Iowa with 28 percent with Warren at 19, Harris at 11, Sanders at 9, and Buttigieg at 8.
The RealClearPolitics average shows a virtual tie in New Hampshire between Biden and Sanders with Warren trailing by about 4 percent.
The RCP average shows Biden running away in South Carolina, however, leading the pack with 38 percent while Warren is at 17, Sanders at 16, and Harris at 12.