Republicans are projected to win 230 House seats this November, giving them an estimated 25-seat majority, according to the CBS News Battleground Tracker model.
Democrats, who currently hold a slim majority in the House, are expected to lose control this November.
Republicans are projected to win 230 seats, more than the 218 needed for a majority, while Democrats are projected to win 205 seats.
The survey found that Democrats are being weighed down by President Joe Biden’s unpopularity, inflation, and the overall direction of the country.
Given all of those factors, key parts of the Democratic coalition are likely to sit this year out, giving the GOP a turnout advantage.
Polls trend down:
Republicans are up 16 points among voters who say their top decision criteria is “the way things are in the country.”
Older, more conservative voters are more likely to turn out than younger and more diverse voters. CBS News projects Republicans to have a four-point turnout advantage.
About 47% say how they feel about Biden is driving their midterm decisions. Those weighing their opinion of Biden “a lot” prefer Republican candidates by a two-to-one margin.
Warning for GOP:
While the GOP is expected to coast to a majority, it’s unclear how the women vote will fall.
Most women polled by CBS called the GOP extreme, including two-thirds of women under 50.
Women respondents by a two-to-one margin said that a Republican Congress would make things worse, not better, for women.
Women under 50 ranked abortion as their top election issue, higher than the economy or inflation.
